StrikeRadar - USA Strike on Iran Probability Monitor
StrikeRadar is a real-time geopolitical risk monitoring dashboard that tracks indicators of potential USA-Iran military escalation. By aggregating publicly available data from eight independent sources, StrikeRadar provides a composite risk score reflecting the current level of tension between the two nations.
How It Works
The dashboard combines eight data signals into a single risk percentage, updated every 30 minutes. Each signal measures a different dimension of geopolitical tension, from news sentiment to military logistics:
- Energy Markets (20% weight): Monitors Brent Crude oil price volatility via financial APIs. Oil markets often move faster than the news cycle, with price spikes typically indicating institutional players hedging against supply chain disruptions in the Middle East.
- Civil Aviation (20% weight): Tracks commercial flight activity over Iranian airspace using OpenSky Network. Airlines routinely avoid conflict zones when they receive security advisories, making flight volume drops an early warning indicator.
- News Intelligence (16% weight): Scans BBC World Service and Al Jazeera for Iran-related coverage containing critical keywords such as "strike," "attack," "military," "missile," and "escalation." The ratio of alarming headlines to total coverage drives the score.
- Digital Connectivity (16% weight): Monitors internet traffic in Iran via Cloudflare Radar. Internet shutdowns are statistically significant leading indicators of government-directed tactical actions, providing an estimated 8-hour lead time on escalations.
- Prediction Markets (14% weight): Tracks real-money betting odds on Polymarket for "US or Israel strike Iran within 7 days." Market prices aggregate the assessments of thousands of informed participants.
- Military Tankers (6% weight): Monitors US Air Force aerial refueling aircraft (KC-135, KC-46) in the Middle East region. Tanker surges are a well-documented logistics indicator of impending air operations.
- Pentagon Activity (5% weight): Monitors unusual patterns of activity near the Pentagon, particularly outside normal business hours. Crisis planning sessions often extend into late-night and weekend hours.
- Weather Conditions (3% weight): Current weather in Tehran from OpenWeatherMap. Military air operations generally require clear visibility for optimal effectiveness.
Risk Levels
The composite score maps to four risk levels: Low (0-30%), Elevated (31-60%), High (61-85%), and Imminent (86-100%). When two or more signals are simultaneously elevated, a 15% escalation multiplier is applied to reflect the compounding significance of multiple aligned indicators.
Important Disclaimer
This is an experimental project for informational purposes only. It is not official intelligence, not verified predictions, and should not be used as the basis for personal, financial, or safety decisions. The system relies entirely on publicly available data and cannot account for classified intelligence or diplomatic activity. Please enable JavaScript to use the interactive dashboard.
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