StrikeRadar - USA Strike on Iran Probability Monitor
StrikeRadar is a real-time geopolitical risk monitoring dashboard that tracks indicators of potential USA-Iran military escalation. By aggregating publicly available data from five independent sources and smoothing them with an asymmetric exponential moving average, StrikeRadar provides a stable composite risk score reflecting the current level of tension between the two nations.
How It Works
The dashboard combines six data signals into a single risk percentage, updated every 30 minutes. Each signal measures a different dimension of geopolitical tension, from news sentiment to political rhetoric:
- News Intelligence (25% weight): Scans BBC World Service and Al Jazeera for Iran-related coverage containing critical keywords such as "strike," "attack," "military," "missile," and "escalation." The ratio of alarming headlines to total coverage drives the score.
- Civil Aviation (24% weight): Tracks commercial flight activity over Iranian airspace using OpenSky Network. Airlines routinely avoid conflict zones when they receive security advisories, making flight volume drops an early warning indicator.
- Oil Prices (16% weight): Monitors Brent Crude oil price volatility via financial APIs. Oil markets often move faster than the news cycle, with price spikes typically indicating institutional players hedging against supply chain disruptions in the Middle East.
- Trump Meter (15% weight): Classifies Trump-Iran headlines by tone — escalation ("no deal", "wipe out", "ultimatum") vs de-escalation ("deal", "talks", "ceasefire"). The escalation share over the last 7 days drives the score.
- Hormuz Shipping (14% weight): Counts maritime incidents reported in BBC + Al Jazeera over the last 7 days — tankers seized, ships boarded, attacks, blockade actions. Active escalation in the strait drives the score up.
- Polymarket (6% weight): Tracks real-money betting odds on Polymarket for "US or Israel strike Iran within 7 days." Market prices aggregate the assessments of thousands of informed participants.
Risk Levels
The composite score maps to four risk levels: Quiet (0-30%), Tense (31-60%), Escalating (61-85%), and War Window (86-100%). When two or more signals are simultaneously elevated, a tiered escalation multiplier is applied (1.20x for 2 signals, 1.35x for 3, 1.50x for 4) to reflect the compounding significance of multiple aligned indicators.
Important Disclaimer
This is an experimental project for informational purposes only. It is not official intelligence, not verified predictions, and should not be used as the basis for personal, financial, or safety decisions. The system relies entirely on publicly available data and cannot account for classified intelligence or diplomatic activity. Please enable JavaScript to use the interactive dashboard.
Methodology ·
About ·
News ·
Contact ·
Terms ·
Privacy