How StrikeRadar calculates geopolitical risk from open-source intelligence
StrikeRadar uses a weighted multi-signal approach to assess the probability of a USA military strike on Iran. The system aggregates data from eight independent, publicly available sources, each measuring a different dimension of geopolitical tension. These signals are combined using a weighted sum formula to produce a single composite risk score between 0% and 100%.
The rationale behind this approach is that no single indicator is reliably predictive on its own. News headlines can be sensationalized, flight data can reflect commercial decisions unrelated to security, and prediction markets can overreact to rumors. By combining multiple orthogonal signals, StrikeRadar reduces noise and provides a more balanced assessment than any individual data point.
Each signal produces a score from 0 to 100. These scores are multiplied by their respective weights and summed. When multiple signals simultaneously exceed their elevated thresholds, a tiered escalation multiplier is applied: 1.20x for 2 signals, 1.35x for 3, 1.50x for 4, and 1.70x for 5 or more, capping at 100%. This multiplier captures the compounding effect when multiple independent indicators align, a pattern that historically precedes significant escalation events.
The composite score maps to four risk levels, each representing a different degree of assessed tension:
These thresholds were calibrated based on historical analysis of past escalation events between the United States and Iran, including the January 2020 Soleimani strike and subsequent tensions. The "Imminent" level indicates that nearly all signals are simultaneously elevated, a condition that has historically been extremely rare.
Sources: BBC World Service, Al Jazeera English
Method: StrikeRadar scans the RSS feeds of BBC World and Al Jazeera for articles related to Iran. Each headline is analyzed for the presence of critical keywords: "retaliation," "strike," "attack," "escalation," "military," "threat," "imminent," "missile," "nuclear," and "war." The risk score is derived from the ratio of articles containing these keywords to the total number of Iran-related articles.
Why these sources: BBC World and Al Jazeera were selected because they represent two of the most widely cited international news organizations with extensive Middle East coverage. BBC provides a Western institutional perspective, while Al Jazeera offers a regional viewpoint. Using both reduces bias from any single editorial stance.
Limitations: News sentiment analysis cannot distinguish between reporting on escalation versus reporting on de-escalation. A headline about "military talks to reduce tensions" might trigger the same keywords as "military strike imminent." This is why news is one signal among eight, not the sole indicator.
Source: Cloudflare Radar
Method: Internet traffic patterns in Iran are monitored using Cloudflare Radar's traffic change data. The system calculates a 4-hour moving average of traffic changes relative to baseline. The scoring thresholds are:
Why it matters: Internet shutdowns in Iran are among the most reliable leading indicators of government-directed security operations. Academic research has documented that the Iranian government has repeatedly used internet shutdowns 6 to 12 hours before significant security actions, including during the November 2019 protests and the January 2020 missile strikes. The 8-hour lead time this provides makes connectivity one of the most operationally valuable signals.
Limitations: Not all internet disruptions are government-directed. Infrastructure failures, undersea cable damage, or regional ISP issues can cause false positives. The 4-hour moving average helps smooth out transient disruptions, but cannot eliminate this risk entirely.
Source: Financial APIs (Brent Crude Oil)
Method: StrikeRadar monitors Brent Crude oil price volatility by tracking the rate of change relative to the 7-day moving average. The scoring thresholds are:
Why it matters: Oil markets often move faster than the news cycle. Price spikes typically indicate institutional players hedging against supply chain disruptions in the Middle East. Energy traders with significant capital at risk tend to act on information before it reaches mainstream media, making oil price movements a leading indicator of geopolitical escalation.
Positive Bias: Only upside volatility is tracked. Price drops indicate lower immediate conflict risk and contribute 0% to the score.
Market Hours: Oil markets close on weekends. The system freezes the last close price and displays "Market Closed" status during non-trading hours, contributing 0% to the total score.
Limitations: Oil prices are influenced by many factors beyond geopolitical tension, including OPEC decisions, global demand shifts, and inventory reports. The signal is most meaningful when price movements correlate with other elevated indicators.
Source: OpenSky Network
Method: StrikeRadar counts the number of commercial aircraft currently transiting Iranian airspace using the OpenSky Network's public API. The system queries a bounding box covering Iran's flight information region and counts active transponders. Normal traffic is approximately 100 or more aircraft at any given time. Significant drops in this number suggest that airlines are avoiding Iranian airspace.
Why it matters: Commercial airlines have access to security intelligence through organizations like IATA and national aviation authorities. When carriers begin rerouting flights away from a conflict zone, it often reflects security advisories that are not yet public knowledge. This pattern was clearly observed before the January 2020 Iranian missile strikes on Al Asad airbase, when multiple carriers rerouted away from Iraqi and Iranian airspace hours before the attack.
Limitations: Flight volumes naturally fluctuate based on time of day, seasonal demand, and commercial scheduling decisions. Night hours in the Middle East naturally show fewer flights. The scoring algorithm accounts for time-of-day baselines, but unusual commercial decisions (airline bankruptcies, scheduling changes) could still create noise.
Source: OpenSky Network (military transponders)
Method: The system tracks US Air Force aerial refueling aircraft, specifically KC-135 Stratotanker and KC-46 Pegasus aircraft, operating in the Middle East region. The presence and quantity of tanker aircraft is assessed against historical baseline activity.
Why it matters: Aerial refueling capability is a critical enabler of extended-range military air operations. Strike packages targeting Iran would require tanker support to operate at the required distances. A surge in tanker activity in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, or eastern Mediterranean is one of the most well-documented logistics indicators of impending air operations. Defense analysts and OSINT researchers have consistently identified tanker deployments as a key "preparation indicator" for military strikes.
Limitations: Military aircraft frequently operate with transponders disabled, so this signal captures only a fraction of actual military activity. Routine training exercises, allied nation exercises, and regular deployment rotations also generate tanker activity. The signal is most meaningful when there is a significant deviation from established patterns.
Source: Polymarket
Method: StrikeRadar tracks the real-money betting odds on the question "Will the US or Israel strike Iran within 7 days?" on Polymarket. The market price directly represents the percentage probability assigned by the collective pool of traders.
Why it matters: Prediction markets have a strong track record of outperforming expert forecasts and polling in various domains, from elections to economic indicators. When participants risk real money, they have a strong incentive to research carefully and update their positions as new information emerges. The "wisdom of crowds" effect means that the aggregate odds reflect the collective assessment of thousands of informed participants, including journalists, analysts, and regional experts.
Limitations: Prediction markets can be influenced by low liquidity (thin markets with few participants), manipulation by wealthy actors, and herding behavior. Markets also tend to be reactive rather than predictive, often spiking after news breaks rather than before. Polymarket's accessibility varies by jurisdiction, which can limit the diversity of participants.
Source: Activity pattern monitoring near the Pentagon
Method: StrikeRadar monitors for unusual patterns of activity near the Pentagon building in Arlington, Virginia. The system compares current activity levels against normal patterns for the given day of week and time of day. Elevated activity during off-hours (nights, weekends, holidays) receives higher risk scores than similar levels during normal business hours.
Why it matters: Major military operations require extensive coordination across multiple Pentagon offices. Crisis planning sessions often extend into late-night and weekend hours. This "Pentagon Pizza Index" concept has been referenced by defense analysts and journalists for decades as an informal indicator of crisis activity. Unusual activity at the Department of Defense headquarters correlates with significant military decision-making.
Limitations: This is inherently a noisy signal. Late-night Pentagon activity can result from routine budget deadlines, congressional reporting requirements, or unrelated military operations in other theaters. The signal is most meaningful when corroborated by other elevated indicators.
Source: OpenWeatherMap (Tehran, Iran)
Method: Current weather conditions in Tehran are assessed for their impact on military air operations. Clear skies and good visibility increase the risk score, while cloud cover, precipitation, and poor visibility decrease it.
Why it matters: Modern precision-guided munitions and air operations generally require acceptable weather conditions for optimal effectiveness. While advanced militaries can operate in degraded conditions, operational planners strongly prefer clear weather for strike missions, particularly when minimizing collateral damage is a priority. Weather in the target area is a basic planning factor in any military operation.
Limitations: Weather is the least predictive signal and carries the lowest weight accordingly. Weather conditions can change rapidly, and military operations can proceed in suboptimal conditions when the strategic imperative is high enough. This signal provides marginal context rather than meaningful predictive power on its own.
When multiple signals simultaneously exceed their elevated thresholds, StrikeRadar applies a tiered escalation multiplier to the total score. The multiplier scales with the number of elevated signals: 1.20x for 2 signals, 1.35x for 3, 1.50x for 4, and 1.70x for 5 or more. This reflects the principle that simultaneous elevation across multiple independent signals is disproportionately significant compared to any individual signal being elevated in isolation.
The rationale is straightforward: if news sentiment is high but all other signals are calm, the elevated news is likely reflecting media coverage of diplomatic rhetoric rather than imminent action. But if news sentiment, aviation avoidance, tanker activity, and market odds are all simultaneously elevated, the probability of actual escalation is meaningfully higher than the sum of parts would suggest. The tiered approach ensures the score responds proportionally to the breadth of the threat picture.
StrikeRadar maintains a rolling history of risk scores, pinned at 12-hour intervals. This history powers the "72 Hour Risk Trends" chart on the dashboard, allowing users to see whether the current risk level represents a sudden spike, a gradual increase, or a sustained plateau.
Each individual signal also maintains a rolling history of its last 20 data points, displayed as sparkline charts next to each signal. This provides immediate visual context for whether a signal is trending up, down, or holding steady.
The data pipeline runs every 30 minutes. During each cycle, the system fetches fresh data from all eight sources, calculates updated signal scores, computes the composite risk, updates the history arrays, and stores a new snapshot. The dashboard displays the most recent snapshot and auto-refreshes every 30 minutes to stay current.
StrikeRadar is a tool for situational awareness, not prediction. It is important to understand its limitations:
We encourage users to treat StrikeRadar as one input among many when assessing geopolitical risk. For the latest official guidance, consult your government's travel advisory service and follow coverage from multiple reputable news organizations.