About StrikeRadar

An experimental open-source intelligence dashboard for geopolitical risk

What Is StrikeRadar?

StrikeRadar is a real-time geopolitical risk monitoring dashboard that tracks indicators of potential USA-Iran military escalation. By aggregating publicly available data from multiple independent sources, StrikeRadar provides a composite risk score that reflects the current level of tension between the two nations.

Unlike traditional news coverage, which often focuses on individual headlines, StrikeRadar takes a multi-signal approach. It combines eight distinct data streams, ranging from news sentiment analysis to energy markets, civil aviation patterns, military logistics, prediction market odds, and even weather conditions, to produce a single, easy-to-understand risk percentage.

Why We Built This

During periods of heightened geopolitical tension, information can be scattered across dozens of news outlets, social media accounts, and specialized tracking tools. People in affected regions, travelers, journalists, and researchers often struggle to get a holistic picture of the current situation.

StrikeRadar was created to address this gap. The goal is not to predict the future, but to provide a structured, transparent framework for understanding the signals that historically correlate with military escalation. By making the methodology open and the data sources public, we encourage critical thinking rather than panic.

The project started as a personal experiment in open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysis. After receiving positive feedback from security researchers, journalists, and concerned citizens, it was developed into the public dashboard you see today.

Who Is Behind StrikeRadar?

StrikeRadar is built and maintained by Yonatan Back, a software developer with an interest in geopolitical risk analysis and open-source intelligence. The project is independently operated and has no affiliation with any government, military organization, or intelligence agency.

Our Approach

StrikeRadar's methodology is based on several key principles:

Multi-signal analysis: No single data point tells the full story. By combining eight independent signals, the dashboard reduces the impact of false positives from any one source.
Transparency: Every signal source, weighting factor, and calculation method is openly documented on our Methodology page. Users can evaluate exactly how the risk score is derived.
Real-time updates: Data is refreshed every 30 minutes to provide timely situational awareness. Each signal shows its current status, whether it is live, delayed, or experiencing connectivity issues.
Historical context: The 72-hour trend chart provides visual context, showing whether risk is increasing, decreasing, or stable over time.

Data Sources

StrikeRadar draws from the following publicly available data sources to construct its risk assessment:

News Intelligence: BBC World Service and Al Jazeera English are scanned for Iran-related coverage containing critical keywords associated with military escalation.
Digital Connectivity: Internet traffic data from Cloudflare Radar monitors connectivity in Iran. Historical precedent shows that government-directed internet shutdowns often precede military or security operations.
Civil Aviation: OpenSky Network provides real-time data on commercial flight activity over Iranian airspace. Airlines routinely reroute or avoid conflict zones when they receive advisories.
Military Tanker Activity: Aerial refueling aircraft (KC-135, KC-46) are tracked in the Middle East region. Tanker surges are a well-documented logistics indicator of impending air operations.
Prediction Markets: Polymarket's real-money betting odds on military action aggregate the assessments of thousands of informed participants.
Pentagon Activity: Unusual patterns of activity near the Pentagon, particularly outside normal business hours, can indicate crisis planning sessions.
Weather Conditions: Current weather in Tehran from OpenWeatherMap, since military air operations generally require clear visibility.

For a detailed breakdown of how each signal is scored and weighted, see the Methodology page.

Important Disclaimers

StrikeRadar is an experimental project for informational and educational purposes only. It is critical that users understand the following:

This is not official intelligence and should not be treated as such.
The risk scores are not verified predictions. They are algorithmic aggregations of publicly available data.
StrikeRadar cannot account for classified intelligence, diplomatic back-channels, or covert operations.
No automated system can reliably predict military action. This tool is one data point among many.
Do not make personal, financial, or safety decisions based solely on this dashboard.

We encourage all users to consult multiple sources, think critically, and stay informed through official government travel advisories and reputable news organizations.

Open Source and Community

StrikeRadar is built with transparency in mind. The methodology is fully documented, the data sources are all public, and the signal weights are openly shared. We believe that making the analytical framework visible allows users to form their own judgments about the data rather than relying on opaque "black box" assessments.

If you have suggestions for improving the methodology, adding new data signals, or correcting inaccuracies, we welcome your feedback. You can reach us through our Contact page or connect on LinkedIn.

Supporting StrikeRadar

StrikeRadar is a free, ad-supported project. Running real-time data pipelines, API access, and server infrastructure has ongoing costs. If you find this tool useful, you can support its continued development by buying us a coffee.